Market Pulse
Author: Created: 3/10/2010 11:54 AM
Market Pulse
By Walter Murphy on 12/28/2012 4:15 PM
This will be my last comment of 2012 (unless the market dictates otherwise). My StockCharts.com chart list with be reviewed and updated as usual this weekend. I wish all a very happy and healthy 2013.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 recorded its fourth straight decline (and fifth in six days) with a loss of 0.1%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 17:16 while the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a more robust 2.1 margin. Turnover increased by 24%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 20 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 29 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The MSCI World (ex US) Index posted its third straight gain with a rally of 0.2%. Moreover, our global daily cumulative advance-decline line recorded an all-time high. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 29 of the 35 non-US markets in our regular survey.

In yesterday’s comment we mentioned that the decline of recent days had an impulsive quality on the hourly charts. Today’s action did much to confirm that appraisal. It is now...
By Walter Murphy on 12/27/2012 4:21 PM
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 recorded its third straight decline (and fourth in five days) with a loss of 0.5%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by almost 5:2 while the up/down volume ratio was only marginally bearish. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 19 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 28 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

Several things strike us about the decline of recent days. It has an impulsive quality on the hourly charts. Both the near and medium term Coppock Curves have a bearish bias. And sentiment is more overbought than not. Price, momentum, and sentiment all suggest, therefore, that lower lows are in the offing in the days and weeks immediately ahead.

With that in mind, the January-April time frame is a seasonally strong time of the year. This, coupled with the fact that the weekly Coppock oscillator will likely have a bullish bias by late January (if not sooner), suggests that any nearby weakness will likely be relatively well contained. Thus, a coming short term low is expected...
By Walter Murphy on 12/21/2012 3:48 PM
On Thursday, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 5:2 while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a more robust 3:1 margin. Turnover fell slightly. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups but has a bearish bias for 16 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The MSCI World (ex US) Index broke a four-day winning streak with a loss of 0.1%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 18 of the 35 non-US markets in our regular survey.

As this is being written (following a quick 36-hour trip to Massachusetts), the S&P futures are down some 19 points. If this holds into the market’s opening, that would indicate a move the 1425 area. We could go on about the market making the news, but the bottom line is that a decline back to 1425 is not all that significant. Indeed, it does not even represent a 23.6% retracement of the November-December rally. Our minimum expectation for a retracement is typically 38.2%, which in this case implies a challenge of at least...
By Walter Murphy on 12/17/2012 4:29 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: A late December/early January momentum low will also coincide reasonably well with a probable 35-day cycle low. A coming 35-day low will mark the beginning of a new 35-day cycle within a bullish 20-week cycle.

Global Equities: China’s Shanghai Index posted its second consecutive weekly gain in excess of 4.0%. This rally was sufficient to reverse the downtrend from May’s high and likely completed a five-wave decline from March’s high.

Interest Rates: The daily Coppock Curve is likely to take on a bearish bias by the end of the year and the weekly oscillator may not bottom until later in January, This combination suggests that the next short term low will have bullish intermediate – and perhaps long term/cyclical – implications.

Commodities: There is the very real possibility that – as is the case with yields – the next short term low for the Continuous Commodity Index will have bullish intermediate and cyclical implications. As a result, the pressures of...
By Walter Murphy on 12/12/2012 6:40 PM
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 had its best day in almost two weeks – and its fifth straight gain – with a rally of 0.7%. This performance was supported by the best (most bullish) advance/decline ratio (12:5) in eight sessions. The up/down volume ratio was bullish by a slightly more modest 11:5 margin. Moreover, turnover confirmed the accumulation day with its first increase (22%) in four days. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups but still has a bullish bias for 23 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The MSCI World (ex US) Index posted its 8th gain in the last nine sessions with a rally of 0.6%. Both our global and European daily cumulative advance-decline lines recorded an all-time high. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 28 of the 35 non-US markets in our regular survey.

As mentioned, both our global and European daily cumulative advance-decline lines recorded new all-time highs. Similarly, in the US, the NYSE all-issue advance-decline recorded its own all-time...
By Walter Murphy on 12/11/2012 5:07 PM
The S&P 500 gained a miniscule 0.03% on Monday. Nonetheless, this was enough to register the index’s fourth consecutive gain. In addition, advancing stocks exceeded losers by 8:5, which was the highest ratio in seven sessions. By contrast, the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a more modest 6:5 margin. Moreover, turnover declined (by 5%) for the third straight day. The daily Coppock Curve now has a bearish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups but still has a bullish bias for 19 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The MSCI World (ex US) Index posted its 12th gain in the last 16 sessions with a rally of 0.2%. Our global daily cumulative advance-decline line recorded another all-time high. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 24 of the 35 non-US markets that we follow on a daily basis.

In our December 4 blog (“Running Out of Time”) we noted that the daily Coppock oscillator was positioned to take on a bearish bias in the next 3-4 days for both the S&P 500 and a majority of its 24 industry groups....
By Walter Murphy on 12/6/2012 10:33 AM
“Plain English”

US Equities: Like a set of dominoes, a coming monthly Coppock Curve peak will have bearish quarterly implications that, in turn, will have negative annual consequences. In Elliott wave terms, the next primary wave peak will coincide reasonably well with a cycle wave peak within a super cycle downtrend.

The Rest of the World: We can make the case that a 2013 Elliott Wave primary degree peak will also have bearish cycle degree implications for most markets.

Yields: In recent weeks, yields broke through and have remained above the downtrend line from the 2011 highs. That likely has become a support line and will be in the 1.49%-1.39% area during December.

US Dollar: The dollar’s monthly Coppock Curve has a bearish bias against five of the six currencies within the index. These pressures are positioned to remain in place into late 2013.

Commodities: The monthly Coppock Curve has had a bullish bias for a majority of the 12 commodities in our universe since August and...
By Walter Murphy on 12/5/2012 5:18 PM
The S&P 500 fell for a second straight day on Tuesday with a loss of 0.2%. Although advancing stocks exceeded losers by 9:8, the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a small margin and turnover increased by more than 5.0%. The daily Coppock Curve still has a bullish bias for all 24 S&P industry groups and for 27 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

Meanwhile, the MSCI World (ex US) Index posted its fourth straight gain with a rally of 0.2%. The Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 33 of the 35 non-US markets that we follow on a daily basis.

Last week, we suggested that a rally by the S&P 500 through 1434 would help confirm at least a short term cycle low. We also noted that the market was close to confirming a bullish breadth thrust. So far, the index has failed to confirm the cycle low and the breadth thrust parameters were not achieved. Moreover, the rally from the November 16 low is an overlapping three-wave pattern.

In addition to those considerations, there are initial signs of near term momentum deterioration....
By Walter Murphy on 12/4/2012 7:03 PM
The S&P 500 fell 0.5% on Monday, breaking a three-day winning streak. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 3:2 while the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a more robust 2:1 margin. However, Monday was not a distribution day as turnover fell by 16%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for all 24 S&P industry groups and for 29 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

By contrast, the MSCI World (ex US) Index posted its third straight gain with a rally of 0.4%. The Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 34 of the 35 non-US markets that we follow on a daily basis.

More importantly, our daily cumulative advance decline line – which is based on 36 country indexes (including the US) – has broken out to another all-time high. This global breakout was supported by similar breakouts in the Latin America regional a-d line and our “core markets” a-d line (US, Japan, UK, France, and Germany). Moreover, while Europe’s a-d line is not at an all-time high it is at the fifth highest level in history. All of this suggests that...
By Walter Murphy on 11/29/2012 4:30 PM
After two inside days (usually a sign of fatigue or indecision) the S&P 500 had an outside day and closed up 0.8% on Wednesday. Outside up days are often a sign of strength. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 21:8 while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a much more robust 4:1 margin. A modest increase in turnover helped confirm that Wednesday was an accumulation day. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for all 24 S&P industry groups and for all 30 DJIA stocks.

By contrast, the MSCI World (ex US) Index fell 0.2%. The Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 31 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

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