Market Pulse
Author: Created: 3/10/2010 11:54 AM
Market Pulse
By Walter Murphy on 10/30/2013 6:07 PM
The S&P 500 gained 0.1% on Tuesday for its fourth straight gain – and 13th in 15 sessions. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 8:5 and the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a more robust 9:5 margin. Turnover increased by 5%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 20 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 25 of the 30 DJIA stocks. The daily oscillators are positioned to peak this week for most groups and stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied by less than 0.01% while the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index gained 0.3%. Internally, 22 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 21 of the 35 markets.

Tuesday morning the Conference Board issued a press release announcing that its Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in October to 71.2, from 80.2 in September. This was the largest month-to-month drop since August 2011. More importantly, it likely locked in the second cyclical lower high since the 1990-2000 multi-decade...
By Walter Murphy on 10/29/2013 5:01 PM
On Monday the S&P 500 gained 0.1% for its third straight gain – and 12th in 14 sessions. However, declining stocks exceeded winners by a bit better than 5:4 and the up /down volume ratio was bearish by a bit less than 5:4. Turnover was modestly higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 23 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 26 of the 30 DJIA stocks. The daily oscillators are positioned to peak this week for most groups and stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 0.2% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index rallied 0.5%. Internally, 19 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 20 of the 35 markets.

As noted, the S&P has posted gains for 12 of the past 14 sessions (from October 9 on). Over that span, the index has gained 6.4%. More importantly, the rally from the October 9 low can be counted as being in its fifth wave. However, this rally could soon come to terms with a very basic Elliott Wave relationship....
By Walter Murphy on 10/23/2013 2:14 PM
On Tuesday the S&P 500 rallied by 0.6% for its fifth gain in a row -- and ninth in 10 sessions. Moreover the index has had a higher low for nine straight days. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by better than 5:2 while the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a more modest 2:1 margin. However, turnover surged 25%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for all 24 S&P industry groups and for 26 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 0.7% while the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index added a more modest 0.2%. Internally, 24 of the 35 markets in our regular survey were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for all 35 markets.

The surge of the past 10 days eliminated many of the breadth divergences that were evident at September’s high. Both the NYSE all-issue and common-stock daily cumulative advance-decline lines, as well as those for the S&P 500, 400, 600, and 1500 indexes, have made all-time highs. This resulted in a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal for the first...
By Walter Murphy on 10/21/2013 3:55 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: Higher rally highs do appear likely in coming weeks. But any further strength will likely prove to be paltry in term of both points and time compared to the potential risk from both those higher highs and even from current levels.

Global Equities: The weekly Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 15 of the 20 major markets and for 16 of the 17 developing markets in our universe. On balance, the oscillators for the developing markets appear to be in stronger uptrends than those for the major markets. This suggests that, while the oscillators for a majority of the largest markets will take on a bearish bias during November, similar pressures may not appear for the smaller markets until later in the year. The relative strength that has been evident since August in favor of developing markets should continue in the weeks immediately ahead.

Interest Rates: The weekly Coppock Curve, which peaked in August, is positioned to remain in a downtrend through most of what’s left...
By Walter Murphy on 10/19/2013 2:31 PM
On Thursday both the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and finished at an all-time high. However, the DJIA recorded a marginal decline and is still 334 points (2.1%) below its mid-September high. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by a bit less than 5:1 while the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a more modest 4:1 margin. However, turnover fell by 3%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for all 24 S&P industry groups and for 26 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 1.2% while the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index added a more modest 0.3%. Internally, 34 of the 35 markets in our regular survey were open; of those, 19 were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 33 of the 35 markets.

Equities: Yesterday, we suggested that the robust rally of recent days could result in a breakout that will be accompanied by more divergences in terms of both quality and quantity. Today’s action confirmed that possibility. Not only did the DJIA fail to confirm the S&P’s new high, but...
By Walter Murphy on 10/17/2013 7:23 PM
On Wednesday both the S&P 500 and DJIA gained 1.4%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by a bit less that 6:1 and the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a similar margin. Turnover increased by 7%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 23 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 28 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

Both the Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index gained 0.1%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 33 of the 35 markets that we most regularly follow on a daily basis.

Over the past five days, the S&P gained better than 1.3% twice. It has not had such a robust run since early January. However, this might prove to be a case of too much too soon. As the index approaches its September high, it runs the risk of running ahead of technical indicators. There are already a myriad of bearish divergences so it is conceivable that a breakout will be accompanied by more divergences in terms of both quality and quantity. This, plus, our long term counts, suggests...
By Walter Murphy on 10/15/2013 2:37 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: An examination of the monthly charts of the DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and the broad-based Wilshire 5000 shows that all four indexes recorded simultaneous lows in June. Since then, the S&P, NASDAQ, and Wilshire indexes have been in virtually uninterrupted uptrends, but the DJIA recorded a noticeable trend interruption in August and then last week’s trend reversal. We do expect the indexes historical harmony to return in due course. In the meantime, the fact that the DJIA is the headline bellwether index (and the index that R.N. Elliott used to develop his wave principle) suggests that we pay it particular attention to in the weeks ahead.

Global Equities: The weekly Coppock Curve still has a bullish bias for 22 of the 37 non-US markets that we follow. However, bearish reversals for a majority of the markets are likely over the course of the next few weeks and the resulting bearish bias should persist well into 2014.

Interest Rates: We have been counting September’s...
By Walter Murphy on 10/11/2013 5:06 AM
On Thursday the S&P 500 and the DJIA both had their best day since the first trading day of the year. Both indexes rallied 2.2%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by better than 18:1 and the up /down volume ratio was bullish by better than an 11:1. The result was the first 90% up day since January. However, in the face of this broad-based strength, turnover fell 5%. The daily Coppock Curve now has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 15 of the 30 DJIA stocks. These numbers suggest that the daily oscillator has effectively put a bottom in place.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 1.1% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index added 0.8%. Internally, 30 of the 34 open markets in our regular survey of 35 non-US markets were higher. The daily Coppock Curve still has a bearish bias for 22 of the 35 markets.

Baseball great Yogi Berra is credited with a number of mangled quotes. These include “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over” and “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Both...
By Walter Murphy on 10/10/2013 4:12 PM
On Wednesday the S&P 500 eked out a 0.06% gain. Even so, this was enough to record its third rally in 15 sessions. The DJIA did slightly better with a 0.18% uptick. Breadth was flat as the 839 gainers edged out the 838 losers. The up/down volume ratio, which was bullish by an 11:10 margin, was a bit more decisive. As was the case with breadth, total turnover was virtually unchanged. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 23 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 27 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.4% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell 0.3%. Internally, 21 of 35 non-US markets in our regular survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 31 of the 35 markets.

In yesterday’s comment we noted that a DJIA decline to below 14760 would allow us to count the 2011-2013 uptrend as a complete pattern. That, in turn, would open the door for at least a 38.2% retracement of that entire rally, suggesting a test of 14473 and possibly lower.

...
By Walter Murphy on 10/9/2013 5:40 PM
On Tuesday the S&P 500 recorded its sharpest decline since late August with a loss of 1.2%. The DJIA did only slightly better with a 1.1% setback. Declining stocks exceeded losers by 15:2; the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a similar margin. These pressures were exacerbated by a 38% surge in volume. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for all 24 S&P industry groups and for 29 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.2% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell 0.1%. Internally, 21 of 35 non-US markets in our regular survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 32 of the 35 markets.

We have pointed out on more than one occasion that the charts for the S&P 500 and the DJIA have recently had different looks. Typically they are in reasonable harmony, but the recent disparity necessitates that we keep a close eye on both. The most obvious recent difference is that, while the S&P’s recent August decline successfully tested its post-November 2012...
Market Pulse
Copyright 2010-2014 by Walter Murphy Global Advisors, LLC Privacy Statement Terms Of Use