Market Pulse
Author: Created: 3/10/2010 11:54 AM
Market Pulse
By Walter Murphy on 11/22/2013 2:36 PM
On Thursday, the S&P 500 broke a three-day losing streak with a loss of 0.8%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 23:5, but the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a much more modest 13:5 margin. Turnover increased by 3%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 16 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index posted its third straight decline with a loss of 0.5%; the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell for a second day with a loss of 1.4%. Internally, 26 of the 35 markets in our regular survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 20 of the 35 markets.

Our favorite chart for any market index is often the monthly chart if for no other reason than it tends to eliminate the noise of lower degree trends. As we have noted in the past, we tend to look at the larger degree charts and work our way down to define the internal structure. That said, the monthly chart shows that, since June 2013, the S&P has been in a final fifth...
By Walter Murphy on 11/21/2013 5:35 PM
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 recorded its third straight loss with a decline of 0.4%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 9:5; the up /down volume ratio was bearish by a similar margin. Turnover was declined by 3%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 13 of the 24 S&P industry groups but has a bullish bias for 17 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.3% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell 0.5%. Internally, 24 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35 market survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 18 of the 35 markets.

Even as the S&P was selling off late in the day, 10-year yields were rallying. Indeed, the day’s 2.80% high exceeded the prior recovery high of 2.78% set on October 12. In recent comments, we have maintained that the minimum requirements have been satisfied for a complete post-September B-wave decline within a larger, still developing, A-B-C uptrend from the early May 1.61% low. Thus, yields are positioned for a C-wave...
By Walter Murphy on 11/20/2013 5:30 PM
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.2%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 13:5 while the up /down volume ratio was bearish by a slightly more modest 11:5 margin. Turnover was essentially unchanged from Monday’s level. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 15 of the 24 S&P industry groups but has a bullish bias for 17 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index snapped a three-day winning streak with a loss of 0.4%. By contrast, the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index gained 1.7% and is now on a four-day winning streak. Internally, 30 of the 35 markets in our regular survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 19 of the 35 markets.

The S&P has declined by almost 18 points since its all-time high in the opening minutes of Monday’s trading. That makes it the most important decline since the November 7 low. More importantly, it qualifies as a fourth wave – and possibly a second wave – correction within a larger five-wave rally pattern since that low eight days...
By Walter Murphy on 11/20/2013 10:45 AM
“Plain English”

US Equities: Last week, the S&P’s decisively broke through 1778.56. As a result, the rally from the October 2011 is longer than the previous 2009-2011 uptrend. At the same time, the S&P also broke out above a resistance trend line that had been repelling rallies since April 2010. These breakouts are evidence for higher highs.

Global Equities: Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 7.7% for the week. This was the best performance among the 37 markets. It was also the index’s best week since October 2009. This, together with the fact that the weekly Coppock Curve is constructive for both the index and a majority of the market’s sectors, suggests higher highs in the weeks ahead.

Interest Rates: The minimum requirements have been satisfied for a complete post-September B-wave decline within a larger, still developing, A-B-C uptrend from the early May 1.61% low. By this logic, yields are positioned for a C-wave breakout above September’s 2.98% A-wave high.

Commodities: Support for gold...
By Walter Murphy on 11/14/2013 5:07 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: The weekly oscillator is positioned to peak within the next 3-6 weeks. This indicator tends to have 2-4 (mostly three) inflection points per year. So far this year, there have been two. Thus, a peak within the next 3-6 weeks will be the third intermediate reversal of the year. If so, it is probable that a intermediate bearish reversal will have a domino effect and increase the pressures on the monthly oscillator, which is a reflection of the 1-2 year primary trend.

Global Equities: The weekly Coppock Curve is peaking and we the oscillator should have a bearish bias for most countries by the end of this month and almost certainly by the end of the year.

Interest Rates: The risk is that yields are in the early stages of a C-wave rally to new post-September highs.  However, we are inclined to give the post-September downtrend some wiggle room and allow for renewed weakness back to at least test, if not break, the recent 2.47% low

Commodities: Last week, WTI...
By Walter Murphy on 11/7/2013 4:34 PM
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.4%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 5:4; the up /down volume ratio was also bearish by a similar margin. Turnover fell 4%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 23 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 21 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied 0.5% but the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index lost 0.1%. Internally, 22 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 32 of the 35 markets.

The DJIA rallied 0.8% to a new all-time high on Tuesday. This could be important for two reasons. First, the rally resulted in a “triple top breakout” on the standard 50x3 point-and-figure chart. This gives us a P&F price objective of 16300. Secondly, since previous resistance often becomes new support, the previous May, August, and September highs may well provide an important cushion in the 15700-15400 range for any pullback.

While this breakout is a potentially bullish...
By Walter Murphy on 11/6/2013 5:49 PM
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 7:3; the up /down volume ratio was also bearish by a similar margin. Turnover increased by 10%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 23 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 21 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.4% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index lost 0.9%. Internally, 23 of the 33 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 32 of the 35 markets.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil experienced its sixth consecutive decline with a loss of 1.1%. It is now down over 15% from its September high. More importantly, oil closed below its 2008-2013 uptrend line. We have been making the case that oil had previously satisfied the minimum requirements for a complete post-2008 rally (which we have been counting as a (B)-wave). Today’s violation of the five-year trend line is another step in confirming the importance of this decline.

With...
By Walter Murphy on 11/5/2013 1:58 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: The weekly Coppock Curve will take on added importance in the months ahead. It currently has a bullish bias and may not record a decisive bearish reversal until December. However, such a reversal may have a domino effect. Given the increasingly fragile nature of the larger monthly and quarterly indicators – and their accompanying primary and cycle degree trends – a reversal to the downside by the weekly Coppock Curve could acceleration the deterioration in the larger degree oscillators and trends.

The Rest of the World: Last month’s broad-based strength was reflected in the monthly Coppock Curve, which now has a bullish bias for 11 of the 17 developing markets in our universe and for 17 of 20 developed markets. However, the oscillator is positioned to take on a majority bearish condition during December-January. These pressures are likely to persist through 2014.

Yields: The low for October, at 2.47%, was within a hair’s breadth of our 2.46%-2.45% minimum objective....
By Walter Murphy on 11/1/2013 6:41 PM
On Thursday, the S&P 500 recorded its second consecutive loss with a decline of 0.4%. This was its first back-to-back loss since October 7-8. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 7:4; the up /down volume ratio was also bearish by a similar margin. Turnover increased by 9%. The daily Coppock Curve now has a bearish bias for 20 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 22 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.7% while the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index lost 0.8%. Internally, 22 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve now has a bearish bias for 28 of the 35 markets.

We have been making the case that the daily Coppock Curves would peak this week for a majority of the groups and stocks we monitor. As noted above, the bearish reversals have occurred. As a result, we will not be surprised if these new short term pressures persist until well into November. In turn, this suggests that the 35-day cycle has peaked.

However,...
By Walter Murphy on 10/30/2013 6:07 PM
The S&P 500 gained 0.1% on Tuesday for its fourth straight gain – and 13th in 15 sessions. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 8:5 and the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a more robust 9:5 margin. Turnover increased by 5%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 20 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 25 of the 30 DJIA stocks. The daily oscillators are positioned to peak this week for most groups and stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index rallied by less than 0.01% while the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index gained 0.3%. Internally, 22 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 21 of the 35 markets.

Tuesday morning the Conference Board issued a press release announcing that its Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in October to 71.2, from 80.2 in September. This was the largest month-to-month drop since August 2011. More importantly, it likely locked in the second cyclical lower high since the 1990-2000 multi-decade...
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