Market Pulse
Author: Created: 3/10/2010 11:54 AM
Market Pulse
By Walter Murphy on 12/21/2013 8:38 AM
On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.1%. This was its 11th setback in 15 sessions. By contrast, the DJIA rallied 0.7% to an all-time high. Despite the day’s relatively modest performance, declining stocks exceeded winners almost 2:1; the up/down volume ratio was also bearish but by a more modest 8:7 margin. Not surprisingly, turnover fell by 19% from Wednesday’s surge to a three-month high. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 21 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 25 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 0.5% but the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell 0.3%. Internally, 26 of the 35 markets in our daily survey were higher. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 25 of the 35 markets.

Gold had its worst day since June with a decline of 3.9% to 1187. This carried gold to levels not seen since July 2010 and confirmed our count. In our most recent STR, we noted that Elliott Wave/Fibonacci relationships allowed for at least 1189 and possibly 1126-1061. Today’s...
By Walter Murphy on 12/19/2013 3:58 PM
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%. This was its best performance since October 10. The DJIA rallied by a more robust 1.8%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers 6:1, while the up/down volume ratio was bullish by a slightly more modest 4:1 margin. Turnover surged by 35%. The daily Coppock Curve now has a bullish bias for 19 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 21 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index gained 0.8% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index rallied 0.3%. Internally, 25 of the 35 markets in our daily survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 19 of the 35 markets.

Conventional “wisdom” has it that today’s rally had to do with the Fed’s rationale for trimming their stimulus program while keeping rates low for an extended period. However, we are fond of saying that the market makes the news. So we think it is important to note that the S&P has just come off of a run of 10 losses in 13 days, which resulted in its most oversold condition since early...
By Walter Murphy on 12/18/2013 4:32 PM
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. This was its fourth decline in five days – and tenth in the past 13 sessions. The DJIA fell by a more modest 0.1%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 7:5, while the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a slightly more modest 4:3 margin. Turnover was virtually unchanged from Monday’s level. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 18 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 20 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.3% for its fifth loss in six days. The Dow Jones Emerging Markets index lost 0.01; this was the fifth decline in a row, but none of the last three setbacks exceeded 0.1%. Internally, 22 of the 35 markets in our daily survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 27 of the 35 markets.

The Dow Jones Global ex US Index has been in a downtrend since late October. Over that span, it has declined by 4.8% and has reversed the uptrend from the June low. So far, the decline has retraced little more than one-quarter...
By Walter Murphy on 12/16/2013 3:54 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: The NYSE daily cumulative advance-decline line is in its own fairly large degree fifth wave. Moreover, our proprietary sentiment index is at a maximum reading of 100 for the first time of its almost 10-year history. The weekly Coppock Curve is likely to peak in the next week or two and the monthly oscillator is positioned for a January bearish reversal. Even if the S&P manages a peek-a-boo breakout, the downside risk could be compelling.

Global Equities: The Dow Jones Global ex US Index has been in a downtrend since late October. In the seven weeks since then, then index has declined by 4.6% and has broken below the uptrend line from June’s low. Even so, the correction has yet to achieve a minimal 38.2% retracement to 224.50. That Fibonacci benchmark takes on added importance when we note that it is surrounded by chart support. The prospects for further weakness are bolstered by the momentum background.

Interest Rates: The Coppock configuration for our six-country...
By Walter Murphy on 12/13/2013 9:03 AM
On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%. This was its third straight decline – and eighth in the past 10 days. The DJIA, which lost more than 100 points for the second straight day, is on a similar losing streak; for reference, the index has not lost 100 points for three straight days since July 2012. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 5:4, while the up/down volume ratio was bearish by a slightly more robust 9:8 margin. Turnover was virtually unchanged from Wednesday’s level. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 23 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 26 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 1.1%, which is its largest decline since August. The Dow Jones Emerging Markets index lost 1.0. Internally, 31 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 29 of the 35 markets.

It is not hard to make the case that the market’s “internal” peak occurred in May. For example, the NYSE cumulative weekly a-d line...

By Walter Murphy on 12/12/2013 9:29 PM
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. While this broke a two-day winning streak, it was the sixth setback in eight sessions. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 9:4, but the up /down volume ratio was bearish by a more modest 3:2 margin. Turnover was unchanged and is marginally above its declining 21-day ma. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 18 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 23 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.1% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index was essentially unchanged. Internally, 27 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35-country survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 25 of the 35 markets.

Over the course of recent years, we were apt to point out the positive correlation between the S&P 500 compared to the euro, 10-year yields, and many commodities. On more than one occasion we were able to employ those relationships to make an inter-market comment on the prospects for the equity markets.

Unfortunately,...
By Walter Murphy on 12/9/2013 6:08 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: The current rally from the June 2013 low is viewed as a fifth wave for both the S&P and DJIA. That said the indexes are tracing out slightly different patterns. For the S&P, the current rally is best counted as the fifth wave within the uptrend from the June 2012 low. By contrast, the current rally is better counted as the fifth wave within the uptrend from the October 2011 low. Either way, once this post-June 2013 rally trend is complete, the indexes will be positioned for their largest correction in many months.

Global Equities: We have been highlighting signs of fatigue, and last week’s action appears to have confirmed the building deterioration. The weekly Coppock Curve now has a bearish bias for a solid majority of both the non-US developed and the developing markets. The overall pressures are such that this majority bearish momentum condition could continue into February – and perhaps into March.

Interest Rates: The weekly Coppock oscillator has bottomed....
By Walter Murphy on 12/5/2013 7:56 PM
“Plain English”

US Equities: The weight of the evidence is that – from the perspective of price, momentum, sentiment, and even valuation – the uptrend from at least the 2011 low is long in the tooth. At the same time, these indicators, along with seasonal and cycle considerations, also suggest that the rally trend still has some unfinished business. Corrections in the weeks ahead will, therefore, be viewed as interruptions within an ongoing uptrend.

The Rest of the World: The daily Coppock Curve for our global a-d line is improving even as the weekly oscillator is overbought and deteriorating, which suggests that the next short term peak will have bearish intermediate implications. This, plus the fact that we are counting the a-d line rally from last June as the fifth wave from 2011, indicates that a coming intermediate correction will put the global indexes at risk for their most important corrections in months.

Yields: We expected a B-wave correction from September’s 2.98% A-wave high with...
By Walter Murphy on 11/22/2013 2:36 PM
On Thursday, the S&P 500 broke a three-day losing streak with a loss of 0.8%. Advancing stocks exceeded losers by 23:5, but the up /down volume ratio was bullish by a much more modest 13:5 margin. Turnover increased by 3%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 14 of the 24 S&P industry groups and for 16 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index posted its third straight decline with a loss of 0.5%; the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell for a second day with a loss of 1.4%. Internally, 26 of the 35 markets in our regular survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 20 of the 35 markets.

Our favorite chart for any market index is often the monthly chart if for no other reason than it tends to eliminate the noise of lower degree trends. As we have noted in the past, we tend to look at the larger degree charts and work our way down to define the internal structure. That said, the monthly chart shows that, since June 2013, the S&P has been in a final fifth...
By Walter Murphy on 11/21/2013 5:35 PM
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 recorded its third straight loss with a decline of 0.4%. Declining stocks exceeded winners by 9:5; the up /down volume ratio was bearish by a similar margin. Turnover was declined by 3%. The daily Coppock Curve has a bearish bias for 13 of the 24 S&P industry groups but has a bullish bias for 17 of the 30 DJIA stocks.

The Dow Jones Global (ex US) Index fell 0.3% and the Dow Jones Emerging Markets index fell 0.5%. Internally, 24 of the 34 open markets in our regular 35 market survey were lower. The daily Coppock Curve has a bullish bias for 18 of the 35 markets.

Even as the S&P was selling off late in the day, 10-year yields were rallying. Indeed, the day’s 2.80% high exceeded the prior recovery high of 2.78% set on October 12. In recent comments, we have maintained that the minimum requirements have been satisfied for a complete post-September B-wave decline within a larger, still developing, A-B-C uptrend from the early May 1.61% low. Thus, yields are positioned for a C-wave...
Market Pulse
Copyright 2017 by Walter Murphy Global Advisors, LLC Privacy Statement Terms Of Use